What advice would your former assistant have for someone who is trying to get better at fermi problems/guestimmation? I am asking because I read Superforceasting last year, and I believe this is a very useful skill. Thank you so much for your fantastic writing (discovering your substack just made me order your book). :)
I don’t believe the Superforecasters are even that good. The best way to get better at predicting events is to have a lot of experiences in the area you want to learn to forecast. Then your pattern recognition will improve. Chess grandmasters don’t actually look moves ahead, they recognize patterns.
What advice would your former assistant have for someone who is trying to get better at fermi problems/guestimmation? I am asking because I read Superforceasting last year, and I believe this is a very useful skill. Thank you so much for your fantastic writing (discovering your substack just made me order your book). :)
I don’t believe the Superforecasters are even that good. The best way to get better at predicting events is to have a lot of experiences in the area you want to learn to forecast. Then your pattern recognition will improve. Chess grandmasters don’t actually look moves ahead, they recognize patterns.